By GARRY RAYNO, Distant Dome
While the Democrats have reason to celebrate their record turnout for a primary, they have a problem they need to address before the general election.
While non-contested gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington collected 126,223 votes, there were 155,385 Democratic ballots cast in the primary, giving her just 81 percent of the possible votes.
That means 29,162 voters who picked up Democratic ballots left the circle next to her name blank, while 2,627 wrote in Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s name, nine wrote in GOP gubernatorial candidate Shaun Fife’s name, two wrote in GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob Wayne McClory’s name, and 2,150 wrote in somebody’s else’s name.
Primary elections are when a voter can “protest” without paying a price, especially when the race is uncontested like Warmington’s.
But if 19 percent of Democrats and Independents who otherwise were voting for the Democratic candidates, that “Blue Wave” will need to be a Blue Tsunami to avoid a great deal of disappointment for down ballot candidates particularly state senators and house members.
Any chance of flipping the House will be much slimmer unless there is a better showing for Warmington in the general election and there probably will be, but will it be enough.
However, the good news for Warmington is that she received 25,303 votes more than Ayotte who received 100,920 votes of 91 percent of the Republican ballots cast in the primary.
While the primary numbers are no guarantee of victory in November, they certainly indicate which party has the enthusiasm and momentum, which should not be a surprise after reviewing the latest University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll on business and economic climate done for Business and Industry Association.
People are not optimistic and some are upset and angry over escalating inflation and jumps in the cost of living and don’t believe anything will change in the coming year.
If you are the majority party both here and in Washington, you are going to pay the price for the uneasiness that pervades the American psyche today.
Although Ayotte was nearly 30,000 votes behind Warmington, she still won Belknap, Carroll and Coos counties, but lost about two-to-one in Cheshire, Grafton and Strafford counties, which should not be a surprise as they are most Democratic counties in the state.
But Hillsborough is a purple county and Warmington had greater than 6,000 votes more than Ayotte.
The problem with the governor’s race at the very top of the ticket in the general election is that once someone starts down one side of the ballot or the other, they often stay with that party.
So someone voting for Ayotte first would tend to stay with Republicans, particularly with undeclared or independent voters.
That may not be quite so true with the upcoming general election with hotly contested races for US Senate and the 1st Congressional District which covers Manchester and most of the golden triangle from Nashua to Concord to the Seacoast.
While the rematch in the 2nd Congressional District with Democratic US Rep. Maggie Goodlander, and Republican Lily Tang Williams, was fairly close two years ago, it is the more Democratic of the two congressional districts and may not be so close this year.
But once a voter starts voting for Republicans or Democrats they tend to stay there.
When a voter gets to the State Senate candidates or the House candidates many have no idea who they are voting for if they bother to vote that far down the ticket.
That is one reason there have been so many Free Staters/Libertarians elected to the House and Senate in recent elections, many from heavily Republican districts as the Republicans did a great job gerrymandering the districts, particularly in the Senate where it is all but impossible for Democrats to take the majority.
The down ballot Democratic candidates will suffer if Warmington cannot at least make it a close race with Ayotte.
If she loses by 20 percent because too many of the Democrats and Independents left the circle blank next to her name, the Democrats’ chances of flipping the House will become impossible.
The Democrats also have something else to worry about if the school cap question goes on the general election ballot.
It is currently being challenged by two citizens from Campton and Warner for being misleading, confusing and vague which they claim make it unconstitutional.
The cap is the latest attempt by the Libertarian/Republican leadership in the House to cap school budgets. All of their earlier attempts failed outright or failed to have the desired effect.
This backdoor attempt at a referendum, which New Hampshire does not allow, would cap school budgets to the rate of inflation plus new construction, and cap administrative budgets to six percent of a district’s total budget.
Although the language says school instruction and other classroom services will not be impacted, that is not true because if the budget is capped it would be up to the district’s school board where those reductions would come from.
The Libertarian/Republicans are not so concerned about the caps as they are bringing out conservative voters who may not regularly vote but just want their property taxes to be lower, which is not what the cap will do.
They want the voters who do not regularly attend their school districts’ annual meetings to venture out and vote for the cap and hopefully the Republicans on the ticket.
The cap question does not need to turn out that many voters to make a difference in many of the races on the ballot, but certainly for the US Senate and 1st Congressional District it could be crucial.
Ten years ago, is a great example of what can happen.
Then Gov. Maggie Hassan was running against incumbent Republican US Senate Kelly Ayotte. It was an incredibly close race, made more so by Aaron Day, who secured enough signatures to run as an independent, along with a Libertarian candidate, Brian Chabot.
Hassan won the contest by 1.017 votes while Day picked up 17,742 votes that might otherwise have gone to Ayotte and Chabot received 12,597 votes.
While that is not going to happen to Ayotte this time, it may well happen to Sununu because Day will again be on the ballot running for the US Senate as an independent.
He had collected enough signatures, but had not registered to vote in Nashua where he had recently moved.
The Secretary of State ruled he could not run due to his residency issue, and was backed up by the Ballot Law Commission.
But a US District Court judge ruled that his residency within the state could not be a fatal issue to his candidacy and ordered his name put on the ballot.
So the extra voters the school budget cap brings out of the woodwork to cast a “yes” vote on squeezing public schools more may have implications for other races.
And it is one more reason for Democratic and independent voters in the general election to mark the circle next to Warmington’s name if they want to change the direction of the state and put a stop to the destructive reign of the Libertarian/Republicans in the legislature.
Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.
Distant Dome by veteran journalist Garry Rayno explores a broader perspective on the State House and state happenings for InDepthNH.org. Over his three-decade career, Rayno covered the NH State House for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Foster’s Daily Democrat. During his career, his coverage spanned the news spectrum, from local planning, school and select boards, to national issues such as electric industry deregulation and Presidential primaries. Rayno lives with his wife Carolyn and their two rescue dogs.