By GARRY RAYNO, Distant Dome
Non-presidential elections are prone to uncertainty for both parties.
In New Hampshire, moving pieces will produce more upheaval than the state has experienced for a number of years with two Congressional positions open as two longtime incumbents step aside.
US Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s announcement she would not seek a fourth term, set the pieces in motion with First District Congressman Chris Pappas of Manchester, deciding to run for the open US Senate seat after serving four terms in the US House.
His decision in turn opens up his seat to a free-for-all for both parties.
You have to go back before the turn of the Century to find the last time there were two federal vacancies in the same election.
There have been incumbents knocked off to provide two or more new faces since that time, but not open seats.
The two open seats in both US Senate and the US House with Republicans holding razor thin margins will translate into enormous attention financially and strategically for purple state New Hampshire.
The two open seats aside, non-presidential years are often a change of course, as the party that controls the White House is often punished for the perceived sins of the chief executive.
Republicans were able to grab the reins of power in both the US House and US Senate during the last election, but retaining power with their slim majorities will be even more difficult in today’s political climate.
And that is why President Trump is desperately urging red states to redraw the political boundaries of their US House seats to favor Republicans more than they already do.
The unprecedented rejiggering of the boundaries may look good on paper, but is really a two-edged sword because by the nature of gerrymandering, any change that makes it more advantage for the majority party in one district is going to make an adjoining district a little less advantageous because the number of Republicans and Democrats in any state is finite and you can’t magically create more members of one party.
In recent times, the non-presidential elections have created problems for the party controlling the White House. The 2022 election costs Democrats control of the US House, and in the 2018, Republicans lost control of both the US House and US Senate.
Over the last few decades the loss of seats in the second year by the party controlling the White House has been more the norm than the exception.
But the non-presidential year elections have also had major impacts on who controls the New Hampshire House and Senate, and the coming election may be one to watch in that respect as well, although the state Senate is so gerrymandered, Democratic state senate candidates could receive substantially more votes than the Republican candidates in the general election and still be in the minority by two or three seats.
With 400 seats, the House is a bit more difficult to gerrymander to the extent the Senate is, and more susceptible to swinging one way or the other depending on who is at the top of the ticket, the money flowing in, the quality of the candidates and which party has the better messaging.
The last time Democrats controlled both the House and Senate in New Hampshire was the result of a non-presidential year election when the same person was president who holds the post today.
In the 2018 election, Democrats rode discontent with Trump to control the Senate and House with comfortable majorities only to lose those majorities in the 2020 election when the controlling party for the next legislative term would be drawing the new political boundaries for the state including the Congressional districts.
It was a big blunder by the Democratic Party’s hierarchy and Democratic candidates have been paying the price ever since.
Before that incursion, the Democrats were able to claim the majority in the House in the 2012 election riding the coattails of President Obama’s strong showing in New Hampshire although the Senate remained in Republican control for that term.
Democrats were able to control the House and Senate for two terms from 2006 to 2010, the first time they had done that in 154 years, and they did it beginning with a non-presidential election.
They rode growing dissatisfaction with then President George W. Bush to healthy majorities in both chambers.
The House elected Terie Norelli as Speaker, the first Democrat in 69 years.
The four years marked some of the most significant changes in the state in some time, the most notable probably same-sex marriage, which was legalized in 2009, the fifth state to do so.
The Senate had swung to Democratic control after the 1998 election, another non-presidential election, for the first time in 84 years when Sen. Clesson “Junie” Blaisdell became Senate President, although he would die in office about a year later.
The 2006 election was not quite as monumental in Washington as it was in New Hampshire, but Democrats were able to reclaim both the US House and US Senate during that election.
The Democrats would hold the Senate until after the 2014 election, but the House flipped back to Republican control in the 2010 elections as did both bodies of the New Hampshire legislature, again another non-presidential year election.
In New Hampshire the switch in party control was monumental as it flipped form Democratic control of the House and Senate to two-thirds Republican majorities in both the House and Senate giving the legislature a veto-proof majority over then-Democratic Gov. John Lynch.
Most blame Obama’s push for the Affordable Care Act, which was unpopular at the time, but has become widely supported by the majority of the country.
The 2011-12 legislature had the job of redrawing the political boundaries of the state just as the 2021-2022 legislature did.
After the boundaries were redrawn in 2012, Democratic state Senate candidates would receive a greater number of votes than their Republican counterparts for the next three elections although Democrats did not win enough seats to take control until after the 2018 election.
The upcoming election looks very much like the 2014 and the 2006 elections with a lame duck president whose popularity is receding, the same arena the current President occupies.
Will the results be similar?
Judging from the results of the elections earlier this month in Virginia, North Carolina and California, you could jump to that conclusion.
But the election is a year away, and that is more than a lifetime in the political world where momentum can shift a dozen times between now and then, and with a volatile personality in the White House who will do almost anything to be a winner and avoid being a loser, there are no sure bets to place.
Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.
Distant Dome by veteran journalist Garry Rayno explores a broader perspective on the State House and state happenings for InDepthNH.org. Over his three-decade career, Rayno covered the NH State House for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Foster’s Daily Democrat. During his career, his coverage spanned the news spectrum, from local planning, school and select boards, to national issues such as electric industry deregulation and Presidential primaries. Rayno lives with his wife Carolyn in New London.