By GARRY RAYNO, InDepthNH.org

DURHAM — Although the New Hampshire presidential primary is more than two years away, northern New Englanders are already beginning to line up behind candidates.

In surveys done by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center released Monday, former Democratic Presidential candidate and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is the early favorite in New Hampshire for Democrats, while New York U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the favorite in Vermont and California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads in Maine.

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance has substantial leads in all three states early in the selection process.

In New Hampshire, Buttigieg is favored by 19 percent. He finished second in the first in the nation 2020 Presidential Primary to Vermont US Sen. Bernie Sanders, who won with 25.6 percent of the vote.

In the Granite State Poll, Newsom is second with 15 percent followed by Ocasio-Cortez with 14 percent.

Former Vice President and the Democratic standard bearer in 2024, Kamala Harris, had 11 percent, then Sanders with 8 percent and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker with 6 percent.

Nearly half of self-described socialists support Ocasio-Cortez while progressives tend to prefer Ocasio-Cortez or Newsom. Liberals and moderates tend to prefer Buttigieg and Harris.

On the Republican side, Vance had 51 percent looking favorably at his potential campaign, followed by 2024 Presidential candidate Nikki Haley with 9 percent and former Hawaii US Rep. Tulsi Gabbard with 8 percent.

The survey was completed by 1,547 New Hampshire residents between Oct. 16 and 21. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percent.

Included were 602 likely 2026 Democratic presidential primary voters and 689 likely Republican presidential primary voters.

Vermont

In Vermont, there is a statistical three-way tie at the top among Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom and Buttigieg. Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom each have 17 percent although Ocasio-Cortez’s strong support is higher, and Buttigieg is at 16 percent.

Vermont’s own U.S. Sen. Sanders is at 14 percent and Harris at 6 percent.

Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders are most popular among self-described socialists, Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg are most popular among progressives, while Newsom and Buttigieg are most popular among moderates, and liberals are closely divided.

On the Republican side, Vance is favored by 61 percent and no one else is above single digits.

The survey was completed by 880 Vermont residents between Oct. 16 and 21. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percent. Included were 476 likely 2026 Democratic presidential primary voters and 186 likely Republican presidential primary voters.

Maine

In Maine, the top three candidates are almost as close as they are in Vermont.

Newsom leads with 16 percent, Ocasio-Cortez has 15 percent, Buttigieg 14 percent, Harris 9 percent, Pritzker 8 percent, New Jersey US Sen. Cory Booker 7, Sanders 7 percent and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer 5 percent.

According to the center, Ocasio-Cortez is most popular among self-described socialists, while progressives are split among many candidates. Newsom and Buttigieg are most popular among liberals, while Newsom is most popular among moderates.

On the Republican side Vance leads substantially with 60 percent of the vote and a favorability rating of 85 percent. Florida Gov. and former Presidential candidate Ron DeSantis had 11 percent and no one else was above single digits.

The survey included 1,094 Maine residents contacted between Oct. 16 and 21. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.0 percent. Included in the survey are 470 likely 2026 Democratic presidential primary voters and 381 likely Republican presidential primary voters.

All three surveys indicated Northern New England residents blame both parties and President Trump for the current shutdown, with slightly more blaming Republican lawmakers.

They all agree Trump should get some of the credit for the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, but most do not expect it to hold.

Trump’s approval ratings are underwater in all three states.

In New Hampshire, 54 percent disapprove, while 45 percent approve, in Maine, 56 disapprove and 46 approve, and in Vermont, 69 percent disapprove and 27 percent approve.

In New Hampshire where there is uncertainty about the state’s long standing place at the head Presidential primary selection process, about two-thirds, 66 percent of New Hampshire residents strongly, (52 percent) or somewhat (14 percent) support a New Hampshire law requiring the New Hampshire Presidential primary to be held seven days or more prior to any similar election in another state.Twenty-eight percent say they are neutral or it doesn’t matter to them, while only 3 percent opposed the law, and 3 percent are unsure.

Majorities have supported this law for the past few years.

The law has wide bipartisan support, with 77 percent of Republicans, 67 percent of independents, and 56 percent of Democrats in favor.

Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.