January 11, 2024
A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley’s momentum has slowed. 31% of respondents indicate that they would support her in the upcoming primary, up just a single point from the Survey Center’s last poll in December. However, Haley will likely be the primary beneficiary of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s exit from the race and will likely continue to gain ground on former President Donald Trump down the stretch.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque stated “Haley wins voters that dislike Trump, while DeSantis and Ramaswamy appeal to voters that like the former president. 78% of Haley supporters and 100% of Christie supporters have an unfavorable impression of Trump, while 76% of DeSantis supporters and 74% of Ramaswamy supporters have a favorable impression of Trump. As a result, Christie supporters looking for a new candidate will likely find more common ground with Haley.”
Former President Donald Trump is the choice of 45% of respondents, up a point from December. Trump holds significant advantages on the issues that matter most to Republican primary voters. He leads Haley 48%-33% among voters most concerned about the economy and inflation, 61%-20% on immigration, 41%-35% on government spending and taxes, and 47%-36% on national security.
Levesque continued “Assuming he’s the Democratic nominee, President Joe Biden will face a Republican nominee that will have work to do in consolidating his or her party. Trump would get the greatest support in a general election from Republican primary voters, with 68% saying they would vote for him over Biden. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would get 65%, Haley would get 64%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy would get 60%.”
Results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1194 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary likely voters. Surveys were collected between January 8th and 9th, 2024, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Candidates were presented in random order for the favorability and ballot preference questions.
The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.8% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.
