HARRIS’ LEAD OVER TRUMP NARROWS IN NH; LIKELY VOTERS SPLIT ON EXPECTED WINNER NATIONALLY

DURHAM, NH – Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a lead over former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire as the campaign comes to an end, but her advantage has shrunk since September. Voters are evenly split when asked which candidate they expect to become president, a change since September when a plurality expected Harris to win. Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, are more popular among likely New Hampshire voters than Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. There is widespread anxiety in the state about political violence, as more than four in five likely voters express concerns about violent election interference, attacks on political figures, and political leaders trying to seize power.

For complete press release and detailed tabular results, please click:

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/832

AYOTTE HOLDS SMALL LEAD OVER CRAIG IN NH GOVERNOR RACE; PAPPAS & GOODLANDER LEAD RACES FOR CONGRESS

DURHAM, NH – Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a slight lead over Democrat Joyce Craig in the race for governor of New Hampshire. Ayotte has consolidated support within her party and holds a twenty percentage point lead among Independents. In New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District, Democrat Maggie Goodlander leads Republican Lily Tang Williams in the race to succeed outgoing Representative Ann Kuster, while Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas leads Republican Russell Prescott in his bid for a fourth term. Likely voters have only modest familiarity with a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot raising the required judicial retirement age in the state and more than one-third remain unsure how they will vote on it.

For complete press release and detailed tabular results, please click:

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/833

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Election Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Overall, 2,887 individuals completed the survey between October 29 and November 2, 2024. Two thousand, one hundred and six (2,106) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online. In addition, 781 New Hampshire residents completed the survey after receiving an invitation via text message to complete the survey online. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 1.8 percent. Included in the sample were 2,814 likely general election voters (margin of sampling error +/- 1.9 percent), 1,433 of whom reside in NH’s 1st Congressional District (MOE +/- 2.6 percent) and 1,359 reside in NH’s 2nd Congressional District (MOE +/- 2.7 percent).