In short: The analysis finds that State Fiscal Year 2025 revenues dropped 9.4 percent in the General Fund and Education Trust Fund compared to last year after adjusting for inflation. Revenues that surged after the pandemic, fueled by corporate profits and real estate sales, have since declined, underscoring New Hampshire’s current reliance on a few volatile sources and the impact of tax policy changes like business tax reductions and the repeal of the Interest and Dividends Tax.
Key findings:
- New Hampshire’s State revenues to the General Fund and Education Trust Fund, after being boosted by high corporate profits and quickly-accelerating housing prices, have declined since 2022.
- State revenues are becoming more reliant on gambling and Insurance Premium Tax revenues, while Tobacco Tax and liquor receipts have declined.
- Combined business tax receipts were 39 percent of General and Education Trust Funds revenues in State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2023, but declined to about 35 percent in SFY 2025, dropping $156 million since SFY 2023.
- Lottery revenues have increased substantially in large part due to more legalized gaming, and will likely grow with new sources added this year.
The analysis also outlines several areas to watch, including whether business tax receipts will continue to decline, if Real Estate Transfer Tax revenues will rebound, how much lottery revenues will increase with new sources, and if Liquor Commission receipts will continue to be eroded.
You can read the full issue brief at https://nhfpi.org/resource/shifting-sources-a-brief-look-at-long-term-state-revenue-trends-in-new-hampshire/.