By PAULA TRACY, InDepthNH.org
CONCORD – The gap is closing between the House and Senate budget versions for the next two years with more tax money projected than when the House budget was developed in February.
With a balanced state budget required by law for the next two years, the important projected tax revenue picture for the state through June 2027 came more into clearer focus Tuesday and it is looking better than it did this winter.
Conferees from both parties were told that it appears the gap between respective budgets which was over $200 million has closed to where there is about $33 million less in revenue than the Senate budget.
Revenue from various taxes looks to be going in a more positive trend in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, particularly due to more money coming in from the state’s Lottery Commission than projected.
And some other good news also came to the table for charities which get a cut of the charitable gaming revenue.
Sen. Tim Lang, R-Sanbornton said charity revenues from gaming could go from about $13 million to over $30 million based on expanding the number of video machines.
The better revenue numbers for businesses are based in part on lower energy costs and less regulation for business, said Chris Shea, deputy legislative budget administrator.
Shea worked with Sen. Tim Lang, R-Sanbornton, and Rep. John Janigian, R-Salem, on new data together with Lindsey Stepp, commissioner of the Department of Revenue Administration over the past few weeks.
“Generally speaking, you are about $33 million dollars less in revenue than what the Senate has so that is a difference you need to address during this committee of conference,” Shea said.
It ends on Thursday.
Janigian said the House did not have the advantage of that information in February.
He noted then, business taxes were pegged at $1.03 billion “and now we are finding out that based on what is happening that (the Department of Revenue Administration’s) low estimate for business taxes of $1.071 billion represents a $41 million increase over the House’s estimate at the time.
“So, when you take that and you start projecting out each year, because now – I am just talking business taxes – being $41 million higher and then looking at ’26 to ’27, the House increase had come in at 4 percent – I am sorry, (I mean) $2.9 percent. The senate was at 5 percent – we did compromise at 4 percent growth – and from ’26 to ’27 we compromised with a 5 percent growth rate seeing that we predict the economy will continue improving with lower energy costs, less regulation and a better business climate,” Janigian said.
“The starting factor being higher and then you take just a slightly higher rate you end up with higher rates over each year, you add them together you end up with these higher values for the business tax.”
The same goes for projected lottery revenue, he said.
Since February, Charlie McIntyre, executive director of the Lottery Commission has revised his revenues upwards at least three times, he said.
This is largely due to a recent boom in casino expansion along the border with Massachusetts.
In 2025 the original revenue projection figures were $190 million, that has been updated to $207 million with a few more weeks in this year and for fiscal year 2026 and 2027 the House had numbers of $185 million each year based on McIntyre’s estimates which were revised to $221 million and $236.7 million in 2026 and 2027 respectively.
State Rep. Dan McGuire, R-Epsom, asked what was new from just a few days ago when McIntyre gave far different numbers.
Janigian said they got updates yesterday from him and said the recalculation is based on the number of new historic horse racing machines times the daily revenue per machine. Janigian said when McIntyre redid that yesterday that is where the numbers came from.
The House and Senate have drastically different budget positions and need to come to a deal this week.
The Senate’s budget spends more.
Sen. Tim Lang, R-Sanbornton, said he had a very “vigorous debate” Saturday with Janigian and knowing now that there are only two weeks left in the fiscal year, and the lottery “industry is changing pretty quick.”
He noted this winter when the Senate was looking at revenue projections for the lottery in February it was using the current model which was 1,900 machines and now the state is up to 3,600.
Lang said he feels comfortable with McIntyre’s projected figures.
“Director McIntyre has never missed a number he has provided to us,” Lang said, “I think we came up with some really good numbers.”
And some other good news also comes to charities which get a cut of the charitable gaming revenue.
Lang said using the 1,900 machine estimated charity would get $13.9 million. Under this language that number goes up to over $30 million with 3,600 machines.