By PAULA TRACY, InDepthNH.org
CONCORD – The financial news was good for fourteen members of the House and Senate who sat down together for the first time Thursday as the budget committee of conference.
The downward trend for tax revenue is beginning to look positive and the Insurance Commissioner has adjusted his revenue estimates. When combined that is almost $100 million more than had been anticipated for state programs and services than was contemplated.
After seeing dropping revenue and projections for taxes collected, the state could be at an inflection point for tax revenue, the commissioner of Revenue Administration told them.
The committee of conference is working on House Bill 1 and House Bill 2 which make appropriations for the next two years beginning July 1.
The numbers are predicated on revenue projections due to a state law that requires a balanced budget.
Between the House and Senate the budgets are more than $200 million apart with the Senate spending more.
If they can’t agree on a single budget by the end of the current fiscal year on July 1, the state goes into a continuing resolution and operates using current budget terms.
If they can come to terms, the full House and Senate will have to vote before it goes to the governor where she can veto the budget, sign it into law or let it become law without her signature.
Those chosen for the powerful committee are 10 House members and four senators: Senate President Sharon Carson, R-Londonderry, Senator James Gray, R-Rochester, Senator Cindy Rosenwald, D-Nashua and Senator Regina Birdsell, R-Hampstead.
The ten House members and chair of the committee of conference are Rep. Kenneth Weyler, and State Reps. Dan McGuire, Joe Sweeney, Jose Cambrils, Mary Jane Wallner, Keith Erf, Erica Layon, Maureen Mooney, Jason Osborne and John Janigian.
House members said they could see an extra $70 million than its projections months ago.
Sen. Tim Lang, R-Sanbornton who heads up Ways and Means, said it had the benefit of better projection numbers than the House and based their numbers on expectations that business taxes could increase.
“It all started on the fact we had more time with the data,” he said.
McGuire, R-Epping, said he did not expect to be able to go as high as the Senate based on the expectation of business investment though he agreed growth expectations for second half of 2026 look to be much stronger.
Rooms and Meals taxes have been performing well and reports show that internal travel will be much higher particularly for industries with outdoor economies, Lang said.
The Real Estate Transfer Taxes could improve with a drop in mortgage rates, he added.
AN INFLECTION POINT
Commissioner Lindsey Stepp of the Department of Revenue Administration, addressed the committee on revenue projections and said she thinks the state is at an inflection point where things are getting more settled into where the business taxes could come.
Estimates show a DRA low and high based on May 2025 data with a range.
“We look at the current fiscal year as the base and apply growth rates,” Stepp said. Prior revenue estimates were only through January. “Now we have data through May,” she said.
Rep. McGuire asked where do the 2 and 8 percent DRA estimate ranges come from?
Stepp said it is not so scientific but more a general feeling of how business taxes will perform. Factors in the economy considered were inflation, tariffs, and revenues performing day to day.
“As you know revenues have been declining but I feel we are at an inflection point,” she said based on estimated business payments.
“Two percent would be on the low end of growth for an economy and 8 percent is when we have a strong economy. Where we go in the future is obviously the unknown,” Stepp said.
McGuire asked if 5 percent is most likely?
“We don’t produce scenarios,” she said and that not any one number is more likely.
“It really depends on how the committee feels about,” the economy.
“Certainly the middle is safer but not more likely than any of the other scenarios,” Stepp said.
Michael Kane, legislative budget assistant went over documents in front of them including comparison reports between the two chambers’ budget versions, a revenue prediction documents and others which are all on line, will be revised and available on the LBA’s button on the state legislative website, gencourt which can be found here https://gc.nh.gov/lba/budget/fy2026_2027_budget.aspx.
COMMISSIONER OF INSURANCE
DJ Bettencourt, commissioner of insurance, said there is new electronic software in his office that is helping to see much sooner in the process of projected insurance revenue numbers.
For the first time it has allowed him to see revenue was going to be significantly above where they thought it would be.
“It is important to make an adjustment,” he said to the tune of an added $15 million.
“Hopefully that is helpful to all of you,” Bettencourt said.
The committee of conference will continue to work for the next two weeks on a budget both sides can live with.