CONCORD — The Republican-led House on Thursday approved revenue estimates for the next two-year budget cycle that are $530 million lower than what Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte proposed in her budget plan.
The House approved general fund revenue estimates of $5.87 billion during the next two-year budget period, which starts July 1, while the governor estimates the state will take in $6.40 billion.
The House Ways and Means Committee provides an estimate for the House Finance Committee to use in making decisions on state spending for the upcoming biennium, which runs from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2027.
The Ways and Means Committee also projected state revenues for the current 2025 fiscal year, which ends June 30, to be $3 billion, $156 million less than it projected two years ago for the general and Education Trust funds.
To complicate matters, Ayotte’s budget projects 2025 fiscal year revenues will be $3.13 billion. That makes the cumulative gap between the House and Ayotte’s projections about $660 million.
For the next two fiscal years, the House Ways and Means Committee set the estimate business tax revenue, the single biggest source for state resources at $2.16 billion, while Ayotte had predicted $2.46 billion, which accounts for $300 million of the $530 million gap between the governor’s and House estimates for general funds.
The Ways and Means chair, Rep. John Janigian, R-Salem, told the House the committee projects a 3 to 4 percent increase in business tax revenue in each year of the next biennium.
Ayotte projected business taxes, which have been declining for over a year, would rebound in fiscal 2026 to $1.21 billion, and to $1.26 billion in fiscal 2027, while the House predicts $1.06 billion in 2026 and $1.1 billion in 2027.
The House and Ayotte also disagree on the amount of revenue the state will realize from the rooms and meals tax, with the governor better than $10 million higher than the House, and there are similar differences for the real estate transfer tax, which Janigian said is beginning to tick up because of increasing sale prices.
Ayotte’s revenue estimates include adding video gambling terminals for charity casino gaming facilities. Under her estimates the revenue would not be large in the first year of the biennium but would rise significantly in the second year.
Janigian told the House the committee could only make estimates based on existing law, which means the video terminal revenue is not included in the House estimates.
The language for adding the terminals is in House Bill 2 of the two-bill budget package that Ayotte presented to the House Finance Committee. The bill has yet to come before the House for a vote.
The House has until April 10 to pass a budget. The House Finance Committee must finish work on its budget proposal by March 27.
Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.