By GARRY RAYNO, InDepthNH.org
In the early 1990s, New Hampshire and the country were looking into an economic abysm fueled by staggering deficit spending by the Reagan administration and financial regulators asleep at their terminals.
When Congress and the Bush administration pulled the rug out from under the massive defense spending the Reagan administration used to fuel the economy, everything came crashing down from defense contractors to computer manufacturers and overbuilt condo projects banks financed without doing due diligence in return for some of the profits.
The five biggest banks in New Hampshire failed, were closed and taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which then owned a large percentage of the buildings on Manchester’s Elm Street as well as numerous condo projects in the greater Seacoast area.
In the midst of the financial chaos, a little known governor from Arkansas with a moderate political philosophy burst on the scene to become the alternative to all the US Senators seeking the Democratic presidential nomination.
His reckless personal behavior almost sunk his campaign before he got out of New Hampshire, but he rallied and dubbed himself the “Comeback Kid” and rode a populous wave and his impeccable political instincts all the way to the presidency.
Bill Clinton had a lead strategist nicknamed “the Ragin’ Cajun” who kept the campaign ship focused on the job at hand.
“It’s the economy stupid,” was his mantra and it echoed through the campaign boiler rooms across the country and spilled onto the nation’s Main Streets finding people’s dismay in 1992 after the economic upheaval devastated lives.
Those running political campaigns today would do well to resurrect James Carville’s sound byte.
“It’s the economy stupid” is another way of saying people vote their pocketbooks, but a little more directly.
If you are a candidate today going into Tuesday’s primary, and you hope the November midterm elections, you do not need to focus on transgender kids on women sports teams, banning books, school budget caps, or even education freedom accounts from either side of the aisle, you need to focus on the current state of the country’s economy with rising prices — we used to call it inflation — the cost of gasoline, diesel, heating oil and electricity, and on ever increasing housing prices and availability, and on wages failing to match inflation.
Two recent University of New Hampshire Survey Center polls reflect growing concerns about family economic security.
And while many like to highlight the differences between the two states, they track closely together in the UNH surveys.
People in both states say inflation has impacted their well being and they do not think it will be any better a year from now, and a majority of both states believe the economy will be in recession within the next 12 months.
That is not a pretty picture to be facing if you are an incumbent candidate of the majority party.
Republicans have controlled Congress for the last two terms and controlled all of the federal government for the past two years.
In that time their major accomplishment is a tax cut package that heavily favors the rich and large corporations while shredding the social safety net for the most vulnerable here and abroad.
The gap that has been growing between the billionaires and multimillionaires and the rest of us has accelerated to reach its worst ever imbalance as the wealth transfer from the bottom to the top that began under Reagan has bled the lower and middle classes dry.
Yes it is a rigged system and people are beginning to understand unless you have the money to play with the big boys, you will live paycheck to paycheck; worry about health care costs, putting food on the table, and heating your home; be victimized by a two-tiered justice system, and worst of all, fear for your children’s and grandchildren’s future.
Building a ballroom or a monument, wars in the middle east, and a new Air Force One do not cut it when you are worrying about the cost of groceries, energy and health care, or if you need a new car at today’s prices.
In the last decade, New Hampshire Republicans have controlled all three branches of government eight of those years with Democrats controlling the legislature for only two years, while Republicans have had the governor’s office keys locked up.
In that time, Republicans focused on attacking public education and transgender people young and old, creating a state paid giveaway to religious and private schools, and homeschoolers, cutting business tax rates, and eliminating the interest and dividends tax, while property taxes increased considerably.
The state’s economy has fallen behind the nation’s held back by a housing crisis, unaffordable child care and rapidly increasing energy prices.
Needless to say people’s outlook for the next few years is not good either according to the surveys of New Hampshire and Massachusetts residents.
In New Hampshire 51 percent of the people surveyed believe a recession will occur and 59 percent in Massachusetts and eight percent in both states believe we are currently in one.
The age old political question “Are you better off now than you were a year ago,” reflects similar sentiments.
In New Hampshire 42 percent say they are worse off, 38 percent say about the same, and 21 percent say they are better off and that comes from those earning $150,000 or more annually.
Asked if they anticipate the situation to change in 12 months, 34 percent say they expect to be worse off, 42 percent say about the same and 24 percent to be better off.
In Massachusetts, 48 percent say they are worse off than a year ago, 40 percent say about the same and 12 percent said they are better off.
Looking out a year, 37 percent believe they will be worse off, 47 percent say about the same, and 16 percent believe they will be better off.
Both states show greater hope for their own state’s economy than the nation’s.
In New Hampshire, when asked what they expect business conditions to be during the next 12 months, 44 percent expect mixed results, 31 percent said bad times, and 25 percent good times.
When asked about the nation’s economy over the next 12 months, 42 percent expect bad times, 35 percent expect mixed results, and 22 percent say good times.
In Massachusetts, when asked about business conditions over the next 12 months, 49 percent expect mixed results, 37 percent said bad times and 14 percent good times.
When asked about the national picture for business, 47 percent expect bad times, 37 percent expect mixed results, and 16 percent good times.
On the national level, a large percentage of both state’s residents believe tariffs have increased the cost of living and negatively impacted the economy.
In almost identical percentages and in identical order, their concerns listed from highest to lower are the cost of gasoline, groceries, electricity/energy, healthcare, housing and childcare.
And they also believe by a large margin that tariffs have increased the costs of goods, and have had a negative effect on the economy.
The numbers are larger in Massachusetts, but only slightly less lopsided in New Hampshire in disapproving of President’s Trump’s use of tariffs.
No wonder GOP US Senate candidate John E. Sununu is running an “Aw Shucks” campaign from his basement in Rye without specifics about anything.
He is hoping you don’t connect him to Trump and his party when you go to the polls in November, while Washington dark money groups have gone seriously negative on Democrat Chris Pappas for voting to continue the state income tax offset for federal income tax liability, something New Hampshire residents are not likely to ever see to reduce what they owe in federal income taxes.
But remember, “It’s the economy stupid,” as families’ costs increase if you want to be elected this year.
Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.
Distant Dome by veteran journalist Garry Rayno explores a broader perspective on the State House and state happenings for InDepthNH.org. Over his three-decade career, Rayno covered the NH State House for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Foster’s Daily Democrat. During his career, his coverage spanned the news spectrum, from local planning, school and select boards, to national issues such as electric industry deregulation and Presidential primaries. Rayno lives with his wife Carolyn and their two rescue dogs.